Mot bättre vetande

Det är så tokigt det där med att vara fullt vuxen människa. Vi vet ju oftast hur vi kommer att reagera i vissa särskilda situationer. Om vi blir pressade så har vi olika mekanismer som bara slår igång, fysiskt och mentalt.
Vi kan ofta (tack vare utbildning och/eller erfarenhet) avgöra vilken situation som gagnar oss, är bra för oss. Likaväl kan vi lätt se vilken situation som utgör fara, eller kan skada oss. Dessutom har vi utrustats med möjligheten att välja.

Vi som bor i demokratier får i stort sett välja hur vi vill. Vi får välja vilken slags kärlek vi vill utöva eller om vi vill bo i vindsvåning i Stockholm. Vi väljer elleverantörer och parlament. Demokrati. En mycket viktig del av vår vardag, även när vi inte upplever den. Och den är så himla lätt att ta för given. Som kärlek nästan.

300 000 individer i Sverige tycker inte som jag. Efter förra valet (hösten 2010) så FÖRSTOD jag det. Jag menar, det är klart att jag vet att nästan ingen tycker som mig, det vet jag ju, men den här gången blev det så... ja, rakt på... som en smäll på käften.

Jag kan lätt säga att jag har svårt för fascister. Och jag har vansinnigt svårt för nazister. Så där irrationellt svårt. Jag blir liksom skitarg bara jag tänker på dem. En slags omvänd rasism, på något obehagligt vis. Jag menar, jag är en upplyst människa. Jag ska kunna kontrollera mig. Det är ju en jävla tur att tanken är fri i alla fall. Än så länge.

Måhända har jag ganska torftig utbildning, i alla fall på papper, men jag tror mig vara relativt intelligent. Jag vet skillnad på demokrati och polisstat.
Men när det kommer till nazister blir jag blind. Tyvärr. Det blir liksom svart i huvudet på mig. Och iskallt i hjärtat. Det är ingen bra kombination.

Idag gick jag emot en av mina principer. På Liberaldemokraternas sida på Facebook var det ett inlägg till en av Sverigedemokraternas komunala hang arounds (och jag tänker under inga som helst omständigheter länka till den här, det begriper ni väl?!) med en länk, där någon snorunge till neofascist försökte svänga sig med en massa vidrigheter, rörande någon jävla interpellation om EXPO och att det var oförsvartbart att skattemedel från den kommunala skattekistan skulle betala för Expo's arbete i kommunen... Men herregud! Vi var flera Liberaldemokrater som reagerade starkt på denna interpellation. Jävligt obehagligt faktiskt.

Principer. Min princip här är att aldrig ta del av Sverigedemokraternas retorik. När någon av mina FB-vänner lägger ut något idiotiskt klipp via "duröret" eller liknande, allt som oftast just bara för att de har sagt ngt puckat igen, så låter jag bli att titta på det. Jag vill hålla mig ren och snygg och fräsch ett tag till. Jag vägrar läsa om Åkessons nya utspel, och scrollar till och med medvetet ner, och förbi, på någon av drakarnas sajter om jag ser någon rapportering om SD's förehavanden. Jag vill inte veta. Och jag har möjligheten att aktivt få vara selektiv i vilken information jag tar till mig. Det är fantastiskt!

Men nu svek jag mig själv. Jag utsatte mig för en av människans starkaste drivkrafter: Nyfikenheten.

Jag klickade på länken. Jag läste och det gjorde mig illamående. Fysiskt illamående.
Jag lärde mig än en gång något om mig själv. Följ instinkten, gå inte i fällorna.

Retoriken på Sverigedemokraternas hemsidor luktar sträng, hård 40-talsvinter. Michael Gajditza, en vänlig själ och Liberaldemokrat, la ut följande citat från sajten: "Mångkulturen kommer att falla och ett stolt och oberoende Sverige kommer att likt fågel Fenix resa sig ur askan" Det känns obehagligt bekant i tonen, som sagt...

Jag kände mig våldtagen. Så där överraskat påhoppad, utnyttjad, och fruktansvärt kränkt. Kan man bli mentalt våldtagen?

Jag menar, man kan ju uppenbarligen åka dit för barnporr om man råkar ha nedladdade manga i burken, så det borde ju i rimlighetens namn finnas någon möjlighet att göra en polisanmälan mot Sverigedemokraterna för mental våldtäkt...

angående det kvinnliga könsorganet ;D

Det som stör mig mest de senaste dagarna är nog de sippa kärringarna som har för lite att göra om dagar och nätter, och istället för att skaffa sig ordentliga hobbys eller ett socialt sammanhang, sitter och fittar sig i kommentarer på allehanda nätsajter. Jag vet inte åldrar eller utbildning, så klart, på dessa individer, men att döma av namnen på dem så verkar de flesta vara födda före 1970, och det förklarar en hel del.

GENERATIONSPROBLEMATIK.

Jag har skrivit om det förr. Mina föräldrar var 30- och 40-talister. Farsan född -37 och morsan -42. Det satte grunden för deras värderingar och normer. De växte upp i ett Sverige, förskonat från kriget tack vare tyskvänlig kung och en patetiskt livrädd skara politiker, som snabbt lyckades dra igång välfärdsstatens alla ekonomiska fördelar. De fick utbildning, jobb och boende. Man blev lycklig av ABC-området och man valde att flytta ut i nybyggda förorten, där 50- och 60-talslivet lullade på i orangea färganalyser...
Pappa Pu lånade stora pengar och byggde lyxvilla, Mamma Mu vidareutbildade sig och öppnade ett litet företag och allt var bara gullgull.
Och i detta gullgull växte jag upp.

Jag hade väl ett annant ingångsläge kan man säga. Sladdis och fick precis vad jag ville och pekade på. Japp. Vi 70-talister är ju som bekant otroligt bortskämda och giriga, eller hur?

Att våra föräldrar pissade på sin föräldrageneration och slängde in dem på ålderdomshem eller långvården, det kan knappast vi barn läggas till last för, och som man bäddar får man ligga, heter det väl? Jag har i alla fall sett till att bädda min säng själv, och tar absolut ansvar för allt jag gör och säger. Till skillnad från till exempel min halvbror (ja, farsan var ute och spred sina gener lite här o där...), som växte upp på 50-talet. Och även min helbror, som föddes -61.

Ingen av dessa har förmågan att tala sanning. Att stå för sina handlingar, eller att verkligen hantera konsekvenser som kommer ur deras handlande.

Jag tror definitivt detta är en generationsfråga.

Mina föräldrar roffade åt sig av allt och lämnade väldigt lite över åt andra, oavsett om det handlade om föregående eller kommande generationer.
Mina bröder, födda på 50 och 60-talen, lärde sig att dölja sanningen, blåneka och ducka för alla konsekvenser.
Jag själv, född 1970, lärde mig att stå för vad jag tycker, tala sanning och leva med mina handlingar.

De sippa kärringarna som befolkar Internet här och var tror jag är födda vilken dag som helst före 1 januari 1970. Tyvärr. Och skulle det nu trots allt vara så att någon är född senare än dess, och ändå sitter och formulerar dessa mycket märkliga kommentarer (på bl.a. Newsmill), då är det hela så otroligt tragiskt.

Den radikalfeministiska rörelsen i Sverige kommer att dö. Tyvärr. Den ideologin förminskar mänskligheten, låser tanken och gör att individen skrumpnar ihop.

En alldeles vanlig tjackhora sa en gång, angående ordet "fitta":

"Det är skillnad på att ha en och att va en!"

Ha en bra dag, vänner & bekanta!

Hinner inte med att blogga!

och när jag kommer på att jag borde, så trillar ögonen ihop av dagens alla påhitt... Nåväl, här länkar jag till mina 4 artiklar som publicerats på Newsmill den senaste perioden.

Legalize-diskussionen

Porrets vara eller icke-vara första artikeln iämnet...

Är det bara sippa kärringar som tycker eller? Uppföljaren...

Vad betyder INTEGRITET för dig?

Läs och fundera, njut och kommentera!

Själv ska jag tillaga värsta goa tomatsoppan (tricket är vitt vin och grädde!) - trevlig kväll!

Kampen går vidare - Free internet movement!

I AM WIKILEAKS!!!

USA hjärtar Sverige

Hela läsningen av det svenska alliansregeringen vill mörka!

Hoppas julen varit bra för dig. För mig har det varit rörigt, därav inga blogguppdateringar. Men jag kommer igen!!

end of the year...

Merry Xmas and a very happy New Year!

I AM WIKILEAKS

CABLE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000407

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS USTR
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/MSIEGELMAN
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/OIO/MKESHISHIAN/BARTHUR

EO 12958 DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS EINV, PREL, ES
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON MCDONALD’S CONTRACTUAL DISPUTE
REF: 05 SAN SALVADOR 3544

Classified By: Amb. H. Douglas Barclay. Reason 1.4 (B) and (D)

¶1. (C) Summary. On December 7, 2005, an appeals court ruled that McDonald’s had illegally terminated its contract with a local franchisee on July 1, 1996, and therefore owed him $24 million in losses and damages. McDonald’s is appealing the decision, but the composition of the chamber that will hear the case makes it unlikely that justice will be served. On February 10, McDonald’s corporate representatives outlined for the Ambassador the company’s strategy to pressure the Salvadorans to ensure a fair hearing by linking the case to CAFTA-DR implementation--an approach the Ambassador suggested would be counterproductive. They also outlined efforts to convince Salvadoran government officials of the importance that the case get a fair hearing, which the Ambassador agreed to support vigorously. End summary.

¶2. (C) Since 1996, Post has supported McDonald’s in resolving its licensing dispute and related intellectual property rights dispute with a former franchisee, Roberto Bukele. The latest twist in this ten-year legal battle, described below in paras. 6-10, is an appeals court’s ruling on December 7, 2005, that McDonald’s had illegally terminated its contract with Bukele on July 1, 1996, and therefore owed him $24 million in losses and damages, a figure claimed by Bukele based on a projection of lost future earnings. On December 27, 2005, McDonald’s General Counsel for Latin America and Canada Maria Leggett briefed Ambassador Barclay on the case, expressing frustration with the legal system, but indicating that her firm would go forward with an appeal to the Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber--McDonald’s local counsel has told us that an appeal was filed on January 4, 2006. She suggested that a fair resolution of the case was unlikely given the current composition of the Civil Chamber. Two neutral judges have recused themselves based on previous involvement in the case. Judging from her case record on the bench, the third judge, an FMLN partisan, will rule against McDonald’s regardless of the merits of the case. McDonald’s is seeking to have this judge removed, and three substitute judges named. McDonald’s has filed a motion to have the FMLN-linked judge recused from the proceedings on the grounds that her well-documented anti-Americanism will prevent her from hearing the case impartially. Local counsel do not believe Supreme Court Chief Justice Agustin Calderon will decide on the recusal or name replacement justices until after March 12 elections.

¶3. (C) On February 10, McDonald’s Vice President for Government Relations Dick Crawford and Maria Legett briefed the Ambassador on the company’s efforts to see a fair resolution of the case. They explained that the company has engaged in a Washington-focused advocacy effort to put pressure on the Salvadorans to resolve the case according to the rule of law, suggesting that CAFTA-DR implementation should be delayed pending resolution of the case. The Ambassador, however, voiced concern that McDonald’s strategy ran directly counter to U.S. interests in seeing CAFTA-DR implemented as soon as possible. Emboffs also noted that McDonald’s invocation of CAFTA-DR in the lead-up to legislative elections would play into the hands of those who have resisted CAFTA-DR by alienating senior government officials who are already working to see that the case is resolved according to the rule of law and by complicating efforts to get additional CAFTA-related reforms through the Legislative Assembly. It would also unnecessarily thrust the case into the public spotlight, creating just the kind of negative publicity that McDonald’s representatives have said they seek to avoid. Crawford acknowledged these concerns and agreed to tone down, but not cease, his company’s efforts on this issue.

¶4. (C) Through local counsel, McDonald’s representative also said they would continue to pursue all available legal means to see that the case is decided according to the rule of law. Emboffs suggested that this is essentially a political issue--getting a fair hearing for McDonald’s means finding a way to exclude judges known to follow FMLN instructions in their rulings from the process. This is an especially delicate issue at anytime, but especially in the run-up to elections and a lame-duck legislative session that provides an excellent opportunity to push through constitutional reforms to strengthen the judicial system. McDonald’s local counsel outlined a strategy it is pursuing to pressure Chief Justice Agustin Calderon to name three impartial judges to the Civil Chamber to hear the McDonald’s case. In particular, they are meeting with local business associations, think tanks, and government officials to ask them to press Calderon on naming judges who will ensure the rule of law is carried out. McDonald’s representatives also suggested they might participate in some of those meetings through a “road show” in El Salvador that would also include other corporate outreach activities.

¶5. (C) The Ambassador told Crawford and Leggett that he believes the Salvadoran Government is extremely interested in seeing the case decided fairly, and that on February 7 Foreign Minister Lainez raised the issue with the Ambassador and advised him to speak to President Saca and impress upon him the importance of the case. The Ambassador said that on February 8, he did raise the issue with Saca, emphasizing the stakes at play for a government in desperate need of foreign investment. The Ambassador emphasized that he would continue pressing this issue as appropriate to encourage resolution of McDonald’s investment dispute according to the rule of law. However, he asked McDonald’s representatives to consider beefing-up their presence in El Salvador to more actively work on the case to compliment his efforts here--a point that Crawford and Leggett took on board.

Background
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¶6. (SBU) In 1972, Roberto Bukele, a licensed franchisee of McDonald’s, opened the first McDonald’s restaurant in El Salvador. By 1992, Bukele operated three McDonald’s restaurants in El Salvador, and on June 9 of that year, McDonald’s Corporation agreed to extend Bukele’s licenses to operate all three restaurants until December 19, 1995. On April 27, 1994, McDonald’s wrote Bukele outlining the terms under which the corporation would consider renewing Bukele’s licenses and extending licenses for new restaurants. Terms included remodeling of existing restaurants (to be financed by a loan from McDonald’s to Bukele), use of McDonald’s-approved sources for food products, establishment of a staff hiring and training plan, and corporate approval of new restaurant sites and new menu items. Although not in full compliance with the terms of the April 27 letter, in December 1995 McDonald’s agreed to extend Bukele’s existing licenses until June 30, 1996, and put forth specific actions Bukele must take to remain a McDonald’s franchisee. Correspondence between Bukele and Bukele provided by McDonald’s suggest that Bukele did not meet the terms of the April 27 letter.

¶7. (SBU) On July 1, 1996, McDonald’s wrote Bukele informing him that his licenses had expired, while offering him one last chance to remain a franchisee by closing unauthorized restaurants, using McDonald’s-approved food products, establishing a staff hiring and training program, and meeting other conditions--essentially, he was asked again to meet the terms established in the April 27 letter under which contract renewal would be considered. On July 10, 1996, McDonald’s notified Bukele that his right to be a McDonald’s licensee had expired and he no longer had the right to use McDonald’s trademarks or proprietary information. Bukele continued to use McDonald’s trademarks and proprietary information in his restaurants despite the expiration of the franchising agreement.

¶8. (SBU) Although there have been a number of court cases related to this dispute, the one in play now involves a suit Bukele filed against McDonald’s in the Fourth Mercantile Court in March 1997 claiming damages for an alleged breach of contract. The court ruled in favor of McDonald’s in 1999, and in 2000 the Second Appeals Court, at the time composed of two judges not linked to Bukele or the FMLN, affirmed the decision in response to an appeal Bukele had filed. Bukele then appealed to the Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber, which at the time included two pro-FMLN judges. In 2003, the Civil Chamber remanded the case to the Second Appeals Court, requiring that the appeals court to hear additional evidence to be submitted by Bukele and annulling the 2000 verdict in favor of McDonald’s. On December 6, 2005, the appeals court, which now included two judges rumored to be friendly to Bukele--either through church links or through Bukele’s attorney--ruled in favor of Bukele, declaring that the April 27, 2004, letter was actually a 20-year contract renewal and that McDonald’s owed Bukele $24 million in damages and losses resulting from the unlawful termination of the contract.

¶9. (SBU) On January 4, 2006, McDonald’s appealed the decision to the Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber, which now includes two neutral judges who have recused themselves based on prior involvement in the case and one FMLN judge XXXXXXXXXXXX. McDonald’s has not been formally notified that the appeal has been accepted for consideration, nor has it been notified formally of the two recusals. However, the company has already filed a motion to have the FMLN-linked judge recused from the proceedings on the grounds that her well-documented anti-Americanism will prevent her from hearing the case impartially. Local counsel do not believe Supreme Court Chief Justice Agustin Calderon will forward the recusal to the entire 15-member Supreme Court for decision until after March 12 elections. Eight votes in favor of the motion would be enough to force recusal, at which point the Supreme Court en bloc would designate three judges from a pool of nine alternates to hear the case. Of the nine judges, four are linked to the FMLN. If XXXXXXXXXXXX is not recused, two will be named from this list. Either way, the reconstituted Civil Chamber would then decide on the case, with a decision ready by 2007. If McDonald’s loses, they plan to appeal to the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court, and to the International Court of Justice if need be.

¶10. (SBU) There have been several other court cases related to this dispute. McDonald’s sued Bukele in 1996 in the Second Mercantile Court seeking the closure of one unauthorized restaurant. The court ruled in favor of McDonald’s, but Bukele appealed the case to an appeals court and then to the Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber, which remanded the case back to the Second Mercantile Court. The case currently languishes in that court of first instance, but in 2000 the police and prosecutors enforced an injunction issued by the Second Mercantile Court to force the restaurant involved to discontinue using McDonald’s intellectual property. McDonald’s also filed suit in 1997 in the Fifth Mercantile Court to seek an injunction under an unfair competition provision in the Commercial Code to prevent Bukele from using McDonald’s trademarks without authorization in all his restaurants. That court ruled in favor of McDonald’s, and in 1999 the Third Court of Appeals confirmed the decision. The Supreme Court’s Civil Chamber confirmed the decision of the Appeals Court in 2003, and that same year the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court denied an extraordinary appeal filed by Bukele. In July 2003, the police and prosecutor’s office enforced an injunction to remove all intellectual property from Bukele’s restaurants; this case is closed. Separate criminal charges filed by McDonald’s in 1997 were dismissed, and that case is closed. Two other cases Bukele filed against McDonald’s alleging breech of contract--one in 1996 in the First Mercantile Court and another in the third Mercantile Court--were dismissed and are closed. Barclay

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK

En stegrande känsla av illamående sprider sig genom min kropp (DN 20/12-2010)

Artikeln beskriver en maktstruktur, där den enskilda medborgaren blir alltmer marginaliserad och ett fåtal regeringstjänstemän styr samhället med järnhand, likt Kafkas "Processen" eller Orwells "1984". Är det dit vi vill driva vår civilisation? Är det här i cyberrymden, med olika autonoma movements, frihetskämpar och integritetshyllare, som ytterligare ett av vår civilisations största krig ska utspela sig? Om jag huvudlöst och helt utifrån amatörnivå ska tolka de tecken jag ser idag (gud vad pretentiöst...) så kan det kännas så.

När en så betydande maktfaktor som USA och dess myndigheter kan skapa ett övervakningssystem för att urskilja "homegrown terrorists" och det dessutom är samma regering som okontrollerat har makten att besluta om vem som är terrorist, då är det inte långt från att andra regeringar (Sverige? England?) strax anammar samma system... Det brukar ju gå till så. USA kommer på något integritetskränkande, odemokratiskt, som man sedan mer eller mindre framgångsrikt lyckas få andra nationer att följa efter på. Om någon är motsträvig och sätter sig på tvären, så får man inte vara med i klubben på ett tag. Man liksom straffar ut sig ett par matcher...
Men om man är lydig och snäll så får man godis och fördelar och får sitta nära på banketten...

Nej, skämt åsido! Jag menar allvar. Någonting håller på att hända. Det är stort och det kommer påverka oss alla. Jag tror det är viktigt att våga se det. Att vår frihet, som vi känner den, är hotad från flera håll. Naturligtvis handlar inte allt om det onda USA och det snälla Europa. Det är trots allt ingen godnattsaga. Risken är att det inte slutar så lyckligt.

Vi måste stå för det vi tror på. Vi kan tro på så många olika saker att det kan vara svårt att förena alla (härligt vänteruttryck!) men det jag tror vi alla sätter främst är trots allt friheten att få uttrycka oss, oavsett vad vi uttrycker, hur vi uttrycker det eller var vi uttrycker oss!

I AM WIKILEAKS - I Am Spartacus fortsätter!

Dagens dokument:

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C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 001919

SIPDIS

EO 12958 DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS PARM, PGOV, PREL, KNNP, DOE, GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL CROSSES THE BORDER

REF: TBILISI 207

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4 (b) AND (d).

¶1. (C) Summary. On August 26, a car carrying three Armenian citizens entered Georgia from Armenia at the Sadakhlo border crossing. The car set off a gamma alarm on the radiation detection portal monitor. The driver provided a cursory explanation for the alarm, and the patrol police did not detain the group. On August 27, the same car returned to Armenia through the Sadakhlo crossing, and again set off a gamma alarm. At this point, the patrol police detained the occupants and searched the vehicle. Georgian officials determined that the car was contaminated with Cesium-137. However, because the search did not produce any radioactive material, the occupants were released and returned to Armenia. An FBI officer is currently following up with the Government of Armenia on the case. End summary.

¶2. (C) Comment. This incident shows the value of radiation detection portal monitors at ports of entry in Georgia, which have been installed across the country over the last several years by the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration/Second Line of Defense (SLD) program. Without the monitors, this car would have probably entered and exited Georgia with no one knowing that radioactive material may have been brought across the border. Officers with the Patrol Police, Border Police and Georgian Customs have received, and continue to receive, training from the United States on detecting and deterring radioactive and nuclear material smuggling. This includes instruction on how to operate the portal monitors. This incident also reveals that some training gaps remain within the patrol police on how to appropriately handle alarms. This vortex of knowledge likely results from the fairly recent (January 2009) assumption of responsibility of ports of entry by the patrol police (reftel). End comment.

GAMMA ALARM ON THE WAY INTO GEORGIA

¶3. (C) On August 26, a car carrying three Armenian citizens entered Georgia from Armenia at the Sadakhlo border crossing. As the car passed through the radiation detection portal monitors, it set off a gamma alarm. The patrol police manning the port of entry briefly detained the vehicle to try and determine the reason for the alarm. The driver of the vehicle said that he had recently had surgery, during which time a radioactive isotope was injected into his body. The patrol police accepted this explanation, requiring no documentation or proof from the driver, and allowed the vehicle and occupants to enter Georgia (Note: According to standard procedures, the driver should have had a doctor’s note or some documentation confirming this. End note).

GAMMA ALARM ON THE WAY OUT OF GEORGIA

¶4. (C) On August 27, the same car, carrying the same three Armenian citizens, returned to the Sadakhlo border crossing to exit from Georgia. The car again set off the gamma alarm on the radiation detection portal monitor. At this point, the occupants were detained and the patrol police, using a handheld pager, determined that the car was contaminated with Qhandheld pager, determined that the car was contaminated with Cesium-137 (Cs-137). However, a search of the vehicle failed to produce any radioactive material. An official with Georgia’s Nuclear and Radiation Safety Service (NRSS) was called to the site, and confirmed that there was Cs-137 contamination covering almost the entire car, even in the ventilation system. A cloth in the car produced the highest radiation reading.

¶5. (C) The occupants of the vehicle were questioned, and one of the detainees told the investigator that he may have been contaminated while at a radio station near his village in Armenia. Because no radioactive material was found, the occupants were released and sent back to Armenia. Using pictures of the alarms from the monitors as evidence that the alarm did go off as the car entered Georgia, thereby establishing that the material originated in Armenia vice Georgia, the FBI’s Regional WMD Coordinator is currently following up with the Government of Armenia on this case. BASS

Nya speglar åt människan!

Det blev ingen uppdatering igår tyvärr, men här är ett nytt dokument!

CABLE - Klicka här!

I am WikiLeaks!
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Wednesday, 15 November 2006, 11:38
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 001661
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 11/15/2016
TAGS AJ, PGOV, PREL, EPET, ENRG, RU
SUBJECT: BP AZERBAIJAN PRESIDENT SAYS AZERBAIJAN MOVING
SLOWLY TO ADDRESS GAS PROBLEM
REF: ANKARA 006396
Classified By: Ambassador Anne. E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (B,D)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: At a November 10 Azerbaijan International Oil Company briefing, outgoing BP Azerbaijan President David Woodward told the Ambassador that according to SOCAR President Rovnaq Abdullayev, Turkey had not agreed to forego its contracted for 2007 Shah Deniz gas deliveries as a way of helping Azerbaijan and Georgia with their winter gas problems, although they were willing to defer delivery of some amounts if the contracted for price of USD 120 per thousand cubic meters remained the same. Woodward said that Turkey was declaring itself ready to receive Shah Deniz gas, although he himself had doubts. He said that a joint BP-SOCAR working group would start work soon to discuss ways of redressing possible GOAJ domestic gas shortages in winter 2007. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) On November 10 the Ambassador attended an Azerbaijan International Oil Company briefing headed by outgoing BP Azerbaijan President David Woodward. Other attendees were incoming BP Azerbaijan President Bill Schrader, BP Group Azerbaijan Director for Communications and External Affairs Clare Bebbington, UK Ambassador Laurie Bristow, UK EconOff, and Econoff as notetaker.
READ-OUT OF TU-GOAJ MEETING
--------------------------------------------- --
¶3. (C) Woodward gave a read-out of his November 2 meeting with SOCAR President Rovnaq Abdullayev. This meeting, prompted by the visit to Azerbaijan of BP Executive Vice-President and Deputy Chief Executive of Exploration and Production Andy Inglis, occurred right after Abdullayev had returned from Turkey with Deputy Prime Minister Abid Sharifov, where they had notified Turkey of intended delays in GOAJ 2007 Shah Deniz gas deliveries. Abdullayev, fresh off the plane, provided Woodward and Inglis a read-out of his Turkey meeting with Energy Minister Gular and Botas. Rovnaq told them that Botas would not sign the document he had brought, in which Turkey was asked to agree to GOAJ providing no Shah Deniz gas in 2007 and in which the GOAJ sought to re-open Shah Deniz price negotiations. Turkey insisted on receiving its contracted for 2007 three billion cubic meters (bcm) of Shah Deniz gas at the agreed upon price of USD 120 per thousand cubic meter (tcm), but said it did not have to receive it all in 2007. It proposed that it could take half (1.5 bcm) in winter 2007, with the rest to be received in 2008 or 2009, at the contracted price of USD 120/tcm. Abdullayev told Inglis that he had gotten Turkey to agree that it would be a transit country for Shah Deniz gas (vice a buyer-seller).
¶4. (C) During this November 2 meeting with Abdullayev and Sharifov, Energy Minister Gular also said that Turkey was ready to receive Shah Deniz gas. In this regard, Woodward said that he thinks that Botas will ask for commissioning gas during the week of November 13-17. As to how ready Turkey actually is to receive Shah Deniz gas, Woodward said that the BP opinion is that Botas still has a lot of work to do to complete the pipeline to include work on the valve stations, and that if the work were done in accordance with international standards then the pipeline might not be ready until spring 2007. However, he added that “it was not inconceivable” that Botas could “rush finish” the job so that it would be ready to receive gas shortly, although the pipeline would not meet international standards.
ACG PROBLEM RESOLUTION
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¶5. (C) Woodward said that during the recent visit of BP Executive Inglis, BP had given both President Aliyev and SOCAR President Abdullayev a copy of a BP ‘white paper’ on the way forward for Azerbaijan in the energy sector, (a copy of which he gave to the Ambassador), with the focus on four main themes:
- ACG Maximum Development: Resolving current issues associated with ACG to maximize recovery - Short/medium/long term gas issues: Short-term - how to address this winter’s gas needs; Medium/Long-term: how best
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to identify and exploit GOAJ gas reserves - SOCAR: how to help make SOCAR an energy company that meets international standards - BP Social Programs: putting a ‘harder edge’ on them, to help build capacity in Azerbaijan
¶6. (C) Woodward said that there were a series of outstanding ACG-related issues the resolution of which involved billions of dollars and which the AIOC partners were trying to resolve with SOCAR in a package, vice individually. In the November 2 meeting between SOCAR President Rovnaq Abdullayev and BP executive Inglis, Abdullayev said that he would head the SOCAR ACG steering group dealing with these problems, and that SOCAR VP Elshad Nassirov would be the SOCAR working level representative. Abdullayev also said he would head the SOCAR team on the BP-SOCAR gas working group, with Nassirov again the working-level representative. Woodward said that Abdullayev had an unrealistic expectation of how quickly these outstanding ACG issues could be resolved: whereas BP thinks that a framework within which to discuss the issues could be agreed upon by January, with actual negotiations over these issues lasting up to six months, Woodward said that Abdullayev told Inglis that the issues could be solved ‘within a few days.’
¶7. (C) Woodward said that Abdullayev did not show much willingness to engage with BP re Azerbaijan’s short-term (Winter 07) gas problems, contending that AIOC giving SOCAR more associated ACG gas could solve the problem. (Note: AIOC is scheduled to give 1.4 bcm of associated ACG gas to SOCAR in 2007; SOCAR is arguing that AIOC does not need to re-inject any ACG associated gas back into the well, and wants 3 bcm). Woodward said that all sides seemed to be waiting for the results of the President Aliyev-President Putin meeting in Moscow, although he himself doubted whether the two would reach any definitive agreement, as everyone is waiting to see the results of the various CIS bilateral Gazprom negotiations, to see if the USD 230/tcm level will hold.
BP GEORGIA GAS READOUT
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¶8. (C) Woodward said he and his replacement Bill Schrader had just returned from Georgia, where they had met separately with the Georgian Energy Minister, Environment Minister and Prime Minister, among others. At these meetings the Georgian proposal of a November three-way gas-focused Turkish-Azerbaijani-Georgian ministerial-level meeting in Tblisi or Ankara was discussed, although nothing definite had been agreed to by all parties. In their meetings, the GOG interlocutors had referred to Turkey’s Summer 2007 ‘agreement in principle’ to supply Georgia from its own Shah Deniz gas, although Woodward said in his opinion all Turkey had agreed to at that time was a ‘bring us a proposal and we’ll have a look at it’ type agreement. Woodward said that the GOG Energy Minister had told him that GA would not buy gas from Gazprom at USD 230/tcm, and that Turkey would supply GOG with 1.5 bcm in 2007. Woodward said the GOG PM was more realistic, saying that perhaps Georgia could get 0.8 to 1.2 bcm from Turkey in 2007. Woodward said the GOG PM seemed more relaxed about the upcoming winter gas situation than did the Energy Minister, and more concerned about Shah Deniz Stage Two-related issues, stating that, inter alia, Georgia and Azerbaijan should look at gas storage issues together, vice separately. Woodward said he got the impression that GOG was more concerned about the economics of gas purchases from Gazprom than the supply itself, and he noted that despite the intense rhetoric flowing between Russia and Georgia, the energy continues to flow.
SD PRODUCTION
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¶9. (C) Woodward agreed that Shah Deniz was experiencing production delays, but said that other issues would play a more determinative role in deciding where Shah Deniz gas went, such as the GOG technical capacity to uptake Shah Deniz gas at its border with Azerbaijan. He said that the Gas Pressure Reduction and Metering Station at Pump Station One in Georgia has a maximum daily design throughput of 4.0 million cubic meters, equivalent to 1.46 bcm/a at one hundred percent load (note: this compares to currently contracted
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quantities which build up to around 08. bcm/a by 2011). As such, he said that part of the work of the SOCAR-BP gas working group that would be meeting imminently would be to model how much gas Georgia could uptake from Azerbaijan from a technical viewpoint. He noted that in addition to the SCP (i.e. Shah Deniz) pipeline, there was also the possibility of transferring gas from Azerbaijan to Georgia through the Azerbaijani gas system. As for Shah Deniz gas itself, Woodward said that as soon as the first two of the four wells start flowing (mid-November and late December respectively), will it be clear how quickly and how much production will be available for winter 2007.
¶10. (C) COMMENT: Before determining what steps to take to redress any possible winter 07 gas shortages in Azerbaijan and Georgia, Azerbaijan first needs to assess its current gas balance and possible alternative supply options. In this regard it is encouraging to hear that the joint BP-SOCAR gas working group is scheduled to meet the week of November 12. Woodward however was disparaging of the selection of SOCAR President Rovnaq Abdullayev and Deputy Prime Minister Sharifov as the GOAJ officials sent to Ankara to deal with the Turkish government (indeed, a Statoil representative told the Ambassador that Abdullayev had taken the wrong version of the Shah Deniz contract to the discussions), and despaired of any solution to the short-term regional problem occurring if management of the issue stayed at the SOCAR level. As such, he requested USG help in convincing Turkey to meet with Azerbaijan and Georgia. Now that Turkey is doing so (see reftel), Embassy will seek to ensure that the GOAJ participates at the appropriate level. END COMMENT. DERSE